Domestic engine industry's first-half earnings growth exceeds expectations


At the beginning of the year, industry insiders predicted that the earnings growth of the engine industry will slow down this year, but the inventory in the first half of the year has surprised many people. The domestic engine industry's revenue growth exceeded expectations.

Significant increase in sales

Shanghai Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. sold approximately 66,000 units of its engines in the first half of the year, an increase of 32% year-on-year, and it has completed 60% of its annual plan. The relevant person in the company told the reporter: “In the first half of this year, China’s economy continued to develop rapidly, and investment in various industries continued to increase. From July 1 onwards, the National Execution Country III automobile emission standards, many users purchase cars in advance, driving the engine sales in 5 , a sharp increase in June. Therefore, the sales in the first half of the year were better than our expectations."

Dongfeng Chaoyang Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. sold 85,817,000 diesel engines in the first half of 2008, a year-on-year increase of 10.84%, and completed 55.43% of the annual plan. “The implementation of State III standards by the state from July 1st will have a greater impact on the production and operation of enterprises. Consumers purchase cars in advance, causing a large increase in engine demand in the first half of the year, especially in May and June. As a result, engine companies are unable to meet the rapidly growing market demand for a while."

In the first half of the year, CNHTC's engine sales volume was close to 100,000 units, an increase of 40% over the same period of last year, and 70% of the annual plan was completed. Both Tin Diesel's production and sales of diesel engines exceeded 150,000 units.

In the first half of this year, the domestic commercial vehicle market continued to develop rapidly. In the first five months, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in each month remained at an increase of over 20%, and truck sales accounted for 88.85% of the sales of commercial vehicles. The truck with the fastest sales growth is still a heavy truck, with a cumulative sales of 32.10 million units, an increase of 53.32% year-on-year; cumulative sales of 518,800 light trucks, a year-on-year increase of 20.37%. Bus sales maintained a steady growth, with a total sales of 146,800 units, an increase of 8.14% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales of light buses reached 98,300, an increase of only 7.63% year-on-year. “The high sales volume of heavy trucks has led to an increase in engine sales.” The increase in passenger car market demand, especially the increase in demand for natural gas engines, has boosted engine product sales while driving the increase in engine sales. "Shangchai related people said.

Another reason for the growth of China's engine sales is the export pull. Statistics from the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center show that in the first quarter of 2008, China exported a total of 179,000 vehicles, an increase of 80.8% year-on-year, continuing the rapid growth since 2002; according to the export amount, the trucks Exports still rank first in China's auto exports. Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, said: “This year, there should be no problem with China’s auto exports exceeding 800,000 vehicles.” The person in charge of Shangchai told reporters: “We have been working hard to open up foreign markets and are now getting paid back.”

For the second half of the market situation, everyone is cautiously optimistic. The relevant person of Shangchai said: “We are still optimistic about the second half of the year because there will be no major changes in China’s economic trend. What we need to do is to give play to our strengths and to improve product reliability under the national III standard and capture customer demand. A person in charge of China National Heavy Duty Truck pointed out: "July and August are the off-seasons each year, and sales will definitely decline. Sales in September will pick up. In general, sales in the second half of the year are still good."

Some people think that the reconstruction of large-scale earthquake-stricken areas in the second half of the year will require a lot of vehicle transportation materials, and sales of trucks and construction vehicles will increase.

Thinning profits

In an interview with reporters, several engine companies did not disclose the profit rate in the first half of the year, but relevant sources told reporters that the profit rate in the first half of the year basically reached expectations. "In the second half of this year, due to the implementation of stringent emission regulations, continued rising oil prices, and national macro-control, economic growth will slow down, market demand will decline, and the engine market situation is not optimistic," said industry sources.

The relevant person of Dongfeng Chaoyang Diesel Engine Co., Ltd. said: "Due to the impact of factors such as the price increase of raw materials and accessories, Dongfeng Chaochai has a lower profit margin in the first half of the year, but it still achieved profit targets."

According to statistical analysis by the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first half of the year, with the rapid growth of sales of commercial vehicles, the profits of commercial vehicle manufacturers have increased significantly. In particular, the profit growth of some state-owned commercial vehicle companies is much higher than that of joint venture passenger car companies. Increase. However, the profit growth of commercial vehicle companies is not stable.

The relevant person thinks that the profit rate of the engine industry will tend to be thin, for two reasons. First, full competition will dilute the profit margin. In a fully competitive market, product pricing is mainly determined by three factors: capacity utilization rate, industry concentration, and industry average profit rate. The higher the capacity utilization rate, the higher the industry concentration, the lower the industry average profit rate, and the greater the possibility of price increases. China's engine industry is still very fragmented and its concentration is not high. At the same time, China has just implemented the National III standard, and the advance consumption and the lack of technical preparation of the enterprise will make use of capacity insufficient. The second is raw material prices. The relevant experts said: "The domestic auto industry will use about 15 million tons of steel a year. At present, the price of automobile steel plates has risen by about 500 yuan per ton. Even if the automobile production in 2008 is about the same as in 2007, the steel plate purchase cost in the auto industry will also be It will increase by 7.5 billion yuan. If 7.5 billion yuan is fully absorbed by automobile companies, the profits of the auto industry will therefore drop by 10%. Usually, companies can pass 50% of their risk. "The main channel for vehicle companies to transfer risk is the engine and other parts and components. enterprise.

Ge Songlin, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automotive Engineers, believes that the cost pressure will increase, and the auto parts companies will bear the brunt.

Under the background of rising international raw material prices, the reconstruction of Sichuan earthquake-stricken areas will generate a large demand for steel and other raw materials, which will indirectly affect the cost of raw materials for engines.

National III Standard Defining New Starting Line

Dongfeng Chaochai relevant person said: “This year, the engine market competition has become more intense. In the past, emphasis was placed on service and quality as the basis of competition. This year, due to the implementation of the National III emission regulations, technological competition has become more prominent and has become the mainstream of engine competition. Who can One step ahead in technology, whoever will become the strongest player in the next competition, will win.To ease the pressure of technological competition, Zhachai takes the three R&D lines of independent innovation, joint development and innovation, and introduction, digestion, and re-innovation. One step ahead to achieve product upgrades."

At present, Chaochao's products use electronically controlled high pressure common rail technology, which fully meets the national III standard, and has already been prepared for the production of the State III products. As long as there is demand in the market, there is no problem with the use of electronically controlled high pressure common rail technology in Chaochai III products, and there is no problem in production capacity. Chaochai has already started the research and development of the National IV product.

Referring to the State III engine technology line, the relevant personage of Chaochai believes that engine companies must shoulder the responsibility of advancing the technological advancement of the automobile industry, take responsibility for building a resource-saving and environment-friendly society, and must strictly implement the State III standard. At present, there are three internationally recognized national III technical routes: electronic control + high pressure common rail, electronic control + single pump, and electronic control + pump nozzle. These three technologies are mature. At present, there are domestic practices of electric pump + EGR (exhaust gas recirculation) that have reached State III. Although the cost can be greatly reduced, it has been proved that it cannot be stabilized in Europe. If the electric pump + EGR III technical route is recognized, it will not only be a price and economic problem, but also a corporate integrity and social responsibility issue. It is also a national image and political issue. Only by strictly implementing emission regulations can the automotive industry truly realize technological progress.

FAW Jiefang Xichai intensified the development of new products, launched a multi-pump development such as electronically controlled common rail in the State III product platform, launched the development of three platforms for the State IV diesel engine, and strengthened the development of heavy-duty vehicles and light-duty vehicles. The core competitiveness of the company's own brand has further satisfied the user's requirements.

The relevant personages of SINOTRUK believe that: “At present, everyone is basically on the same starting line. Heavy-duty trucks began to provide common-rail technology systems in 2005, and they have a certain scale and low cost advantages. Overall, everyone’s progress. Although there are some gaps, but all face a new competitive environment, there are opportunities." Related people said: "We will further improve the reliability of electronically controlled diesel engines under the requirements of the National III standard. Natural gas engines are our superior products. We must maintain this advantage."