Fertilizer market prices rose or fell in 2011

Since November 2010, due to the overall upward trend in prices in the society, the prices of agricultural products have risen too sharply. In order to stabilize prices, the State Council held a price stabilization meeting on November 17 of that year and issued the “Circular on Stabilizing the General Level of Consumer Price to Protect the Basic Lives of the Masses”. Article 4 of the Circular makes it clear that the use of electricity for fertilizer production will continue. , With its preferential policies for railway transport prices, to ensure normal production of chemical fertilizer companies, the use of gas supply, shall not be compared to the fertilizer business power cuts. This will help stabilize the price of chemical fertilizers that have recently risen, ensure the smooth implementation of the winterization of chemical fertilizers, and ensure the domestic use of chemical fertilizers in the spring will play an important role.

The "Notice" has achieved remarkable results soon after it was issued. Many prices, especially agricultural products, have stabilized. Perhaps it is because of this chain effect that many distributors' products have concerns that whether fertilizer prices will experience a new round of decline? Some people in the industry believe that fertilizer prices will not decline for the following reasons:

Insufficient social stock

Years ago, after the new tariffs were announced, the urea market fluctuates and most of the prices have fallen by RMB 50/t. However, the market has not followed this up and dealers are still watching. Many county-level dealers are only slightly in stock, and many village-level dealers are zero-inventories, and this state continues for a long time. After entering the spring ploughing, the demand for chemical fertilizers is very strong, and dealers are actively taking goods. The price should be higher, and there will be no decline.

Increased transportation costs

Fertilizers and pesticides are relatively large varieties associated with oil prices. The rise in oil prices will, to a certain extent, increase the operating costs of fertilizer companies and distributors. Although companies face excess production capacity, the maintenance of dealer companies may incur some freight. But other parts of the cost should still be added to fertilizer prices.

Food prices boost prices

Fertilizer is hailed as “grain food”, so when the price of food is soaring, the price of its upstream fertilizer will naturally rise. According to the latest statistics from the World Bank, from October 2010 to January 2011, international food prices have risen sharply by 15%, a 29% increase compared with a year ago, and are approaching the highest level in 2008. “The sharp rise in food prices has started to be transmitted to the upstream fertilizer industry. Recently, there has been a general increase in fertilizer prices both at home and abroad.

Raw material prices are strong

Taking ammonium phosphate as an example, the mainstream factory price of 55% of powdered monoammonium is about RMB 2700-2750/ton, and the price is still strong. It is estimated that there is no possibility of decline at present. According to a dealer analysis, taking 45% of sulfur-based compound fertilizer as an example, the price of this type of compound fertilizer is at least 200 yuan/ton higher than the price of monoammonium. From this point of view, the current price of compound fertilizer is not very high. In addition, the price of anthracite raw materials for chemical fertilizers was 808 yuan/ton in 2004, and it has now risen to more than 1,100 yuan/ton. Rigidity costs continue to rise, but the price of fertilizers is basically the same, and the price has deviated from the value. The recent sharp rise in international oil prices has also helped boost the price of chemical fertilizers.

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