High Oil Prices Stir the International Political Situation
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In the past week, the New York market crude oil futures price exceeded $100 per barrel for two consecutive days, drawing global attention. Gideon Rachman, a columnist at the Financial Times, noted in his article that an oil price of $100 is more than just a number—it forces world leaders to carefully consider its political implications. The New York Times bluntly stated that “a three-digit oil price has reshaped the global political and economic map, challenging old notions of power.â€
High oil prices have a significant impact on the balance of power. The most immediate beneficiaries are oil-exporting nations, including traditional Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran, as well as non-Middle Eastern producers such as Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Angola. Increased oil revenues have not only boosted their economies but also enhanced their influence on regional and international stages.
Among these, Russia stands out as the most politically and economically influential oil producer. After a long period of decline following the Cold War, Russia has seen a resurgence, largely due to rising oil revenues. This has allowed it to reassert itself as a global power and strengthen its strategic position against the U.S. and NATO. In South America, Venezuela, often criticized by the U.S., remains the region’s largest oil exporter.
On the flip side, high oil prices hit oil-importing countries hard. Developed nations, with more efficient economies and better energy structures, are better equipped to handle the pressure. However, many developing countries face severe economic and social consequences, forcing them to adjust their development strategies, national security policies, and foreign relations under the weight of high oil costs.
The surge in oil prices has intensified global strategic competition. As oil reserves dwindle, analysts argue we've left the "cheap era." This has increased the sense of urgency among oil-importing nations, leading to more aggressive efforts to secure stable supplies. At the same time, oil-producing countries now hold more leverage in international politics.
"Energy security" has become a central theme in global politics. Countries seek reliable suppliers, while oil producers aim for stable markets. Diversification has emerged as the key strategy to ensure energy stability, driving increased cooperation between oil-producing and consuming nations.
As the struggle over oil resources intensifies, energy security issues become more pressing. The Middle East, home to the world's largest oil reserves, is also one of the most unstable regions. Conflicts over oil in Iraq and increasing terrorist threats against oil-rich nations like Saudi Arabia highlight the risks. Similarly, some African oil producers are gaining strategic importance but also facing growing security challenges.
High oil prices also reshape major country relationships. Russia, with vast oil and gas reserves, plays a crucial role in global energy dynamics. While Western countries like the U.S., Japan, and European nations rely heavily on oil imports, they are increasingly dependent on external sources. Russia has been using its energy resources strategically, as President Putin has openly acknowledged.
Western nations have struggled to counter Russia’s energy influence. The U.S. has accused Russia of using energy as a tool to "pressure and coerce" neighboring countries, while the EU faces a dilemma—seeking energy independence while still needing Russian resources. Meanwhile, Central Asia and the Caspian region, rich in oil and gas, have become a battleground between Russia and the West.
With oil prices continuing to rise, the geopolitical significance of energy is becoming more evident. As the Financial Times observed, “If you look at the major geopolitical issues facing the world, you will find that energy is at the heart of most problems.â€