Yang Zaijun: National VI emission standards have repeatedly postponed deeper exploration

A. Multiple factors have caused the country VI to implement further extensions

On July 1, 2003, the production of No. 70 gasoline was stopped and the sulfur content of gasoline was reduced to 800 ppm. For the first time, the content of benzene, aromatic hydrocarbons, olefins, etc. in gasoline was restricted. This is the first set of China's reference to the European vehicle pollutant discharge system.

On July 1, 2005, the National Automobile Group II emission standards for vehicle gasoline and diesel began to be implemented nationwide, requiring the sulfur content of gasoline to be reduced to 500 ppm. The "National" quality standard system has been defined. At the end of 2009, the national implementation of the national emission standards, the sulfur content of gasoline must not exceed 150ppm, but the sulfur content of these standards are several times higher than in Europe! The development trend of vehicle gasoline in the world is focused on continuously reducing the sulfur content of gasoline, controlling the content of olefins and oxygen, reducing the content of benzene and aromatic hydrocarbons, reducing the sulfur content to 50 PM, and the quality of diesel fuel should be in line with the emission standards of automobiles. Adapt to it and put it on the market one year in advance.

Since 2005, China has implemented the first-stage limit standard for passenger cars. Currently, the second-phase limit standard for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles is being implemented. The average fuel consumption of new vehicles has fallen by 4.3% and 10.8% respectively compared with 2006. In June 2010, since the implementation of the Energy-Saving Products Benefiting People Project energy-efficient vehicle subsidy policy, a total of 427 models and more than 4.2 million passenger vehicles have reached the third stage of fuel consumption in advance. This project is expected to save more than 800,000 tons per year. gasoline. After the implementation of the new passenger car in 2012, the average fuel consumption will be reduced to 6.9 liters/hundred kilometers, which is about 20% lower than the second phase, which is close to the limit level of similar European models.

Into the New Year, the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China issued an announcement saying that since July 1, 2013, all production, import, sales, and registration of vehicle compression-ignition engines (diesel engines) and automobiles must comply with the national VI standards. The date when the environmental standards for diesel engine vehicles were upgraded to the national VI standards was postponed again. For the reasons for the delay, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said: “Given the current supply of vehicle diesel fuel that meets the requirements of the National VI Standard, it is still not in place and severely restricts the implementation progress of the National VI Standard. In order to ensure the implementation of the standard, it is determined according to the actual fuel Sub-regional implementation country VI standards.

At present, the domestic mainstream engine and commercial vehicle companies have already possessed the technical reserves of the State VI, and they are relatively mature in technology. The announcement of their national VI models is also increasing. Heavy-vehicle engine suppliers such as FAW Dachai, FAW-Xichai, Dongfeng Cummins, Yuchai, Weichai, and Shangchai are all adopting different technical routes to solve the problem of national IV emissions, and quite a few are still in the experimental supporting stage. At the same time, the market is facing the embarrassing situation of the Stateless Oil VI.

When the Xia State III heavy trucks were also announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, they were unable to report to the Ministry of Environmental Protection. The two government departments of the Ministry of Industry and the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued two inconsistent announcements at the same time. This made the executive department unable to understand what was going on and why it was confused. As Chinese cars have always been a “big fat” and anyone who wants to plucking a geese has to be a big one, it’s not only a lot of them but also chaos in China’s active “care” of the automotive industry. Therefore, the specific implementation of emission standards at the market level, the implementation of strength has also been hit a "discount." Emission standards at the market level will not be the same as their enforcement efforts.

For example, in some remote areas where “the sky is high and the emperor is far”, it is still possible to sell the State II truck heavy trucks, as long as they provide some benefits to the traffic police's vehicle management system. In addition, in some “Tiangaoyuanyuan” mining areas and in rural areas and mountain areas where local protectionism is prevalent, there are many vehicles that do not need to be on the cards. What is even worse is that individual car companies sell illegal products by failing to provide compliance products. Through tricks such as decking and set-up announcements, they get muddled, confided, and mingled with each other, causing turmoil in the market.

B. Difficult to pay heavy tax oil companies "heavy loss" caused oil products do not meet the standard

Before 1993, China was an oil exporter, and it later became a net importer, and its dependence on oil imports rose year by year. In 2009, the import dependency was 51.3%, which exceeded the internationally recognized warning line of 50% for the first time. In 2010, the import dependency was 53.7%. In 2011, it reached 56.6%. It surpassed the United States in one fell swoop, and the situation is very severe.

As of the end of 2011, the country’s car ownership has reached nearly 100 million. In 2010, China consumed a total of 439 million tons of oil, of which about 140 million tons of gasoline and diesel were consumed by automobiles, and accounted for 70% of oil output, accounting for 46% of total oil consumption. According to a conservative estimate, China’s vehicle ownership will reach 200 million by 2020. According to the current level of fuel consumption of vehicles, the total amount of oil consumed by automobiles will reach 440 million tons. If no strong fuel-saving measures are adopted, oil Supply will be unsustainable and the world will not be able to supply China.

According to relevant data, China’s auto fuel consumption accounts for about half of the total annual consumption of petroleum, while 49.2% of auto fuel consumption is consumed by heavy-duty commercial vehicles, which only account for 13.9% of the total vehicle volume. Heavy-duty commercial vehicles consume an amazing amount of fuel and supply energy. The situation is grim. If the fuel consumption of heavy-duty commercial vehicles is reduced by 10%, even if the total number of heavy-duty commercial vehicles held by the end of 2011 is estimated at more than 1210, it will save at least 7.7 million tons of gasoline and diesel per year, equivalent to the fuel consumption of more than 7.7 million family cars. The effect of oil is huge. According to China's current economic development situation, the sales and retention of heavy-duty commercial vehicles will continue to maintain a steady growth momentum in the future, which will aggravate the grim situation in China's energy supply.

In response to climate change caused by shortages of oil and gas and greenhouse gas emissions, the focus of automotive energy conservation efforts worldwide is gradually expanding from passenger cars to heavy commercial vehicles. Through the implementation of heavy-duty commercial vehicle fuel consumption management, it can promote the technical progress of the automotive industry, promote the auto industry from big to strong, and realize the overall goal of stable or low-growth fuel consumption in the context of the growth of the total volume of heavy commercial vehicles.

The national emission standards have been upgraded to the National VI. First, the increase in costs has been brought about. With the addition of a tail gas aftertreatment system, the cost of car purchases will increase. According to the average level of the industry, the price of the national VI vehicle will be 10,000-30,000 yuan higher than the national vehicle.

At present, China is now supplied with a lot of National II oil in many places, and only a small amount of State III supplies are available in individual central cities. In some remote areas, the oil products produced by small workshop refineries are even less than satisfactory. To increase emissions to China IV, an exhaust gas treatment device needs to be installed on the heavy truck engine, and urea needs to be added. Now that the urea addition point has not been established in the country, it has not yet been popularized. In addition, the key technology of urea addition equipment is now controlled by foreign and joint venture foreigners. If only the political considerations and the strong push of the National IV, there will be another situation in which the individual heavy-duty truck companies falsified EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) when it was implemented in the National III.

Statistics show that at present, there are about 90,000 gas stations in China. Among them, Sinopec has about 30,000 and PetroChina has about 18,000. The gas stations owned by the two giants account for about 50% of the total number of gas stations in the country. According to monopoly bully "two barrels of oil," the National IV standard has been postponed, and there is currently no comprehensive supply of diesel to the market. Technical reasons account for one third of the total, and price factors account for two-thirds. In the first half of 2011, both PetroChina and Sinopec’s refining segments suffered losses. Among them, PetroChina's refining business suffered a loss of 23.3 billion yuan, and Sinopec suffered a loss of 12.2 billion yuan. Accumulated over the year the loss is even more serious.

In particular, the direct reason was that in the most critical reform of the refinery in 2008, the domestic oil refining business suffered a loss of about 250 billion yuan, resulting in insufficient funds to support the upgrading and upgrading of the equipment. With continuous losses in the refining sector, it will be difficult to ensure the market supply of the national standard diesel. The fact that the national diesel standard cannot be enforced directly led to the delay in the implementation of the national IV emission standard. The implementation of the future National IV standard also depends on the rationality of the domestic refined oil price mechanism. Sinopec sources said that the upgrading of diesel quality requires a lot of equipment for the refinery. According to the investment deadline and the time approved by the state, the cycle is more than 20 months, but it is impossible for all refineries to stop production and reconstruction at the same time.

In addition, in Europe and the United States, refined oil is classified as a consumer product for daily consumption, and thus the tax revenue collected is relatively low. However, in China, refined oil is defined as a luxury product after entering the circulation sector, and the taxation is heavy. Due to the distortion of the domestic refined oil price tax policy, the whole refining industry appeared to have a “loss”, resulting in no capital support for upgrading the equipment. If according to the current crude oil price, plus the country's heavy taxation on oil companies can only be passed on to the market, allowing consumers to pay. Therefore, domestic refined oil prices should be reasonable above 10 yuan, but now domestic refined oil prices have not been adjusted. As long as they do not reduce heavy taxes on oil companies, refined oil will still have room for significant price increases.

C. The bottleneck of automobile enterprises hinders the implementation of State VI

In China, diesel is divided into vehicle diesel and common diesel. General diesel is mainly used in agricultural, mining, shipping and other fields. At present, in most areas of China, the use of the national standard GB252-2000 "light diesel oil" was promulgated in October 2000. According to the "light diesel" standard, the maximum sulfur content of diesel fuel reaches 2000 ppm (one millionth); and according to the "vehicle diesel oil" standard, the diesel sulfur content will not exceed 350 ppm. China's car diesel and ordinary diesel prices are the same. However, the former has a sulfur content of not more than 350 ppm; the latter has a sulfur content of up to 2000 ppm. In terms of cost, the former is about 13% higher than the latter.

Due to the intervention of China's oil refining companies in the formulation of quality standards for gasoline and diesel, the quality standards of existing gasoline and diesel products are very low. Therefore, even if it is a newly built oil refinery, the production process and refinery equipment are relatively backward and the processing methods are relatively single. The quality of gasoline and diesel in China is worse than developed countries in Europe and America by more than a decade. The difference is mainly due to high olefin content, high sulfur content, deterioration of the performance of the combustion system, and an increase in harmful exhaust gas emissions.

At the same time, there is a big gap between diesel quality standards compared to foreign countries, which is reflected in high sulfur content and corrosion and wear of engine components. It can be seen that China's oil quality standards are far from being able to meet the state's environmental standards for vehicle emissions, let alone meet the country's requirements for continuous improvement of environmental pollution, and the petrochemical industry has become a major industry that is dragging its feet on national environmental protection. Refined oil production is a highly monopolized industry in the country. However, the quality of oil products is far from that of imported refined oil products. Due to the low technical quality standards of gasoline and diesel oil and the backwardness of refining technology for a long period of time, this is the main reason for this gap.

The factors affecting the implementation of VI standards, in addition to the collection of "fuel tax" is also difficult to offset the country's heavy taxes on refined oil, all localities in line with national VI emission standards of low-sulphur diesel supply, the SCR system needs vehicle urea supplement The station is also seriously deficient. At the same time, China's commercial vehicle manufacturers are generally involved in engine combustion technologies, electronic control technologies, vehicle weight reduction technologies, high-pressure fuel supply systems, multi-gear transmissions and other core technologies and core components that are closely related to fuel consumption. There is a considerable gap with the developed countries.

Since the promotion of State III to State IV is not as simple as State II or Ascension III, it is only necessary to modify the EFI system. The National IV standard involves the overall improvement of the entire engine technology. According to the current domestic commercial vehicle technology level, there must be two conditions at the same time for the transition from State III to State IV. First, the engine technology will be fully promoted, followed by the car companies willing to increase the cost of building vehicles, both of which involve the funds of the manufacturers. Investment problems and technical bottlenecks involving national IV emission standards, if the political elites are forced to implement due to political considerations, not only will have a huge impact on the entire commercial vehicle sales market, but will disrupt the normal market logistics delivery order.

To upgrade the diesel engine from State III to State IV, the first thing to do is to solve the problem of diesel particulate emissions. This premise is to accurately control the fuel injector so that the diesel can be fully burned. At present, only diesel engines with high pressure common rail technology are available. This problem is better solved, and those diesel engines that rely on single pump and ERG (electrically controlled inline pump plus cooling) technology only meet the national III emission standard.

In the technical plan for domestic diesel enterprises to upgrade diesel engines from State III to State VI, most of them adopt the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology and use urea solutions to treat the nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gas. Therefore, diesel vehicles need to add “urea tanks” to the post-treatment system. The urea solution is also the most important reductant in the SCR system. In use, the consumption of urea is relatively low, and the consumption of meeting the national VI standard is about 3% of the fuel consumption; however, when there is no urea in the urea tank on the vehicle, the engine emission will not reach the standard and the vehicle will automatically diagnose. The system will also alarm, affecting the normal use of the vehicle. National VI emission vehicles need to add urea on a regular basis, but currently there is no special urea addition station in the country, which makes it difficult for the national VI vehicles to use later.

State III is upgraded to State IV. There are two main technical routes. One is the SCR (Selective Catalytic Reduction) system. Urea solution is used to treat the nitrogen oxides in the exhaust gas. One is the EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) system. The particulates produced by the combustion are treated by particle traps or particulate catalytic converters (DPF). This premise is to precisely control the fuel injector so that the diesel can be fully burned. At present, only diesel engines with high pressure common rail technology can solve this problem better, and those relying on single pump and ERG (electrically controlled in-line pump) Diesel engines with cooling technology only meet the national III emission standards. At present, the core technology of high pressure common rail is still monopolized by foreign companies. If it is imperative to implement the national IV standard, domestic enterprises can only rely on imported key control technologies and equipment, allowing the benefit of offshore companies to take their necks.

D. Implementing country VI or will promote the development of car enterprise technology and benefit the country

The European Union requires that the civilian vehicles sold and operated by its member states comply with the Euro V Standard. The sulfur content of gasoline should be reduced from 150 μg/g in 2000 to less than 50 μg/g in 2005; and there must be a certain requirement from January 1, 2005. The sulfur content of gasoline is up to 10 μg/g; by January 1, 2009, the sulfur content of all gasoline must be reduced to less than 5 μg/g.

Compared to Europe and the United States, the implementation of heavy commercial vehicle VI has been postponed for more than a decade. From the strategic perspective of China's energy security and sustainable development of the automotive industry, it is also urgent to accelerate the fuel consumption management of heavy-duty commercial vehicles. Through the implementation of heavy-duty commercial vehicle fuel consumption management, it can promote the technical progress of the automotive industry, promote the auto industry from big to strong, and realize the overall goal of stable or low-growth fuel consumption in the context of the growth of the total volume of heavy commercial vehicles.

Strict standards actually increase the pressure on end-customer costs. However, they will increase and promote advances in technology and management for heavy-duty truck companies, which will help solve the problems of the auto industry's development, including energy supply constraints. In addition, it may also speed up the elimination of a large number of so-called cottage manufacturers or low-end and inferior products to further increase their production concentration.

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