NDRC expects oil prices to fluctuate significantly

Although international crude oil prices remained relatively stable in May, they have recently dropped sharply from $72.5 to $68.5 per barrel, raising concerns among investors and consumers alike. According to the latest report from the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, as summer approaches, uncertainties surrounding oil production and demand are expected to rise, leading to potential large fluctuations in oil prices in the near future. The report explains that the stability in oil prices during May was largely due to steady U.S. crude oil inventories, while gasoline stocks continued to grow. Additionally, OPEC committed to maintaining supply and keeping prices stable. The situation regarding Iran’s nuclear program has not worsened, and there have been no major geopolitical incidents that could trigger market volatility. As a result, speculative funds have found fewer opportunities for large-scale speculation. Experts at the Price Monitoring Center believe that with the Northern Hemisphere entering summer, energy consumption will surge again. Demand for electricity, natural gas, petroleum, and coal is expected to rise, and increased travel activity in the U.S., Europe, and other regions will further boost gasoline consumption. Given that global oil supply and demand remain tightly balanced, this rising demand may push oil prices higher. Moreover, increased hurricane activity in the summer could disrupt crude oil production, creating new opportunities for speculative investment. Although the Iranian nuclear issue has not escalated, fundamental differences between Iran and Western countries make a quick resolution unlikely. Meanwhile, ongoing instability in Nigeria could threaten its oil output at any time. Any signs of disruption in key oil-producing regions could lead to sharp price swings in the international market. At the same time, the center notes that while oil prices may experience significant short-term fluctuations, sustained and substantial increases are unlikely. Market participants are advised to monitor developments closely, especially as summer brings both higher demand and greater uncertainty.

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